The economic effects of meteorological forecasting standards for supersonic civil transports

Abstract

As an aid to discussions on the future provision of meteorological forecasting services for civil transport operations, an approximate assessment is made of the effects of changes in the accuracy with which en-route and take-off winds and temperatures can be forecast. The results are given in terms of the annual value calculated over the world total of long-range civil operations, first for a current subsonic fleet equivalent to about 350 Boeing 707's and then for a possible supersonic fleet equivalent to about 4.00 Concords, such as might be in operation in 1980-1985. It is found that in current long-range subsonic operations the accurate forecasting of en-route winds is the most important item. In future supersonic operations, however, the most important item is likely to be the accurate fore-casting of en-route temperature, wind being of comparatively minor importanoe. Accuracy in forecasting the airfield temperature for take-off is also likely to be important for supersonic transports.